Volatility around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is creating a windfall for energy majors and hedge funds while consumers and smaller players absorb higher prices and uncertainty. CNBC and Sky News reported in March 2026 that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had promised U.S. Navy escorts for tankers when “militarily possible,” and that oil had already surged above $100 a barrel as Hormuz traffic neared a standstill. Behind the headlines, Bloomberg and Reuters data show hedge funds hiking bullish oil bets to multi-year highs, Middle East crude premiums spiking to records, and VLCC charter rates tripling. The same crisis that is squeezing drivers and inflation-sensitive economies is paying out for those with the capital and risk appetite to bet on disruption.
Hormuz volatility is a one-way bet for big money
Bloomberg reported in February 2026 that hedge funds had increased net-long positions on Brent crude to 320,952 lots—the highest in nearly 22 months—as Iran risks intensified. Monthly call option volumes on Brent hit an all-time high of 5.8 million contracts as traders rushed to hedge and speculate on Iran. Reuters noted that Middle East crude premiums had spiked to multi-year highs: Dubai cash premiums jumped to $19.63 per barrel, the highest on record since 2018, with Oman and Murban not far behind. Very large crude carrier (VLCC) freight rates tripled since the start of the year, reaching about $170,000 per day. Those moves reward energy traders, shipping owners, and producers with exposure to spot and derivatives markets; they punish refiners, retailers, and households that buy fuel at the pump.
CNBC and Sky News framed the U.S. response around escort pledges and a 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release. The reserve release is intended to dampen prices and signal that consuming nations will not let supply collapse. But in the window between the outbreak of conflict and any return to normal transit, volatility itself is the trade. Backwardation in oil futures—with the December 2026 contract trading around $4 per barrel below April—reflects both fear of prolonged closure and the cost of holding inventory. Analysts cited by Reuters and Bloomberg expected oil to stay elevated while Hormuz risks persisted, with prolonged closure potentially pushing crude well into triple digits. For funds and majors with long exposure and optionality, that environment is profitable; for economies that import oil and lack strategic reserves, it is inflationary and politically brittle.
Large oil producers such as ExxonMobil and Chevron have benefited from short-term price support even as longer-term forecasts still point to a projected surplus. Shell and ENI have pursued strategic moves including offshore projects and revamped trading operations to capitalise on volatility. The pattern is familiar: geopolitical shock lifts prices, risk premia expand, and those with scale and trading desks capture the spread. Consumers and small businesses pay at the pump and in higher transport and input costs. Pakistan closed schools and universities to ration fuel; Bangladesh did the same. The UK and other importers warned of inflation spikes. The same crisis that enriches a few is squeezing everyone else.
What This Actually Means
The Hormuz crisis is not a temporary blip that markets will quickly forget. It has exposed how concentrated the gains from oil volatility are and how diffuse the costs. Hedge funds and energy majors can hedge, speculate, and shift cargoes; households and smaller economies cannot. Bessent’s promise of future escorts and the IEA reserve release are aimed at stabilising expectations, but in the meantime the volatility trade is already paying out for the few while the many absorb higher prices and uncertainty. Until transit is restored and risk premia collapse, that asymmetry will persist. Oil traders are not wrong to bet on risk; they are responding to incentives. The structure of the market, however, ensures that a few capture the upside while the many bear the cost. Bessent’s escort pledge and the reserve release aim to cap that upside and shorten the crisis; in the meantime, the bet on Hormuz volatility is already paying out for the few and squeezing everyone else.
What are global oil markets and why does Hormuz matter?
Global oil markets are the worldwide network of production, refining, shipping, and consumption that sets the price of crude and refined products. About 20–25% of seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. When the strait is disrupted or closed, supply is cut and prices spike. Major exporters such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Iran depend on the chokepoint; major importers in Asia and the West depend on that flow. Traders and funds bet on the direction of prices using futures, options, and physical cargoes. In a crisis, those with the ability to hold inventory, charter ships, or take leveraged positions can profit; everyone else pays the premium.
Sources
CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, Reuters (analysts), Sky News, Reuters (Strait of Hormuz)