Summary
Six weeks after US and Israeli strikes turned Iran’s airspace into a war zone, something that felt impossible in March is now happening: diplomats from Washington and Tehran are sitting…
President Trump announced the two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7 via Truth Social, framing it as a decisive win: Iran had agreed, he said, to immediately open the Strait of…
Key points
- Six weeks after US and Israeli strikes turned Iran’s airspace into a war zone, something that…
- President Trump announced the two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7 via Truth Social, framing it as…
- As of Sunday morning, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
- The US delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior…
Six weeks after US and Israeli strikes turned Iran’s airspace into a war zone, something that felt impossible in March is now happening: diplomats from Washington and Tehran are sitting across a table in Islamabad, working through the terms of a peace neither side has fully agreed to yet. The negotiations that opened Saturday are not a resolution. They are the beginning of a reckoning with how a two-week ceasefire built on incompatible premises can be converted into something that actually sticks.
A Ceasefire That Only Half Works
President Trump announced the two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7 via Truth Social, framing it as a decisive win: Iran had agreed, he said, to immediately open the Strait of Hormuz and work toward a permanent peace agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran’s agreement hours later. What neither announcement made clear was that both sides had accepted different versions of the same deal.
As of Sunday morning, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran is still charging a toll of over $1 million per vessel for transit access — a condition Washington describes as a violation of the ceasefire terms. US Navy warships entered the strait on Saturday in what Pentagon officials called a freedom-of-navigation demonstration. Iranian state television called it a provocation. Satellite imagery showed no significant increase in commercial shipping traffic through the chokepoint.
The US delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, arrived in Islamabad on Saturday. Iran’s negotiating team, led by Araghchi, was already in place. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government brokered the original ceasefire framework, hosted the talks. According to a source close to the Iranian delegation cited by NBC News, the first session grew tense on several occasions and the US made demands Tehran considered ‘unacceptable.’ The same source said both sides ended the day in a ‘good position’ and agreed to continue on Sunday.
What Each Side Actually Wants
Iran arrived in Islamabad with a ten-point negotiating framework that has circulated among regional powers since late March. Its core demands go well beyond reopening the strait. Tehran is seeking the complete cessation of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon — a conflict that the US-Iran ceasefire explicitly does not cover. It also demands release of approximately $6 billion in frozen assets, binding guarantees on its right to maintain peaceful civilian nuclear enrichment, and formal recognition of its right to charge transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz.
That last demand is the one most likely to end the talks before they produce results. The White House has made clear in background briefings that the US considers freedom of navigation through international straits non-negotiable, a position with sixty years of maritime law behind it. Iran considers control of Hormuz its primary strategic leverage — the one card that gives it genuine deterrence against a technologically superior adversary. Neither position is a bluff. Neither position leaves obvious room for compromise without one side losing face domestically.
For Washington, the pressure is economic as much as military. The Hormuz closure has already contributed to a US inflation reading of 3.3 percent in March 2026, the highest since 2022, driven largely by fuel costs. Gasoline prices at American pumps have risen more than 25 percent since February 28. Every additional week the strait stays closed tightens that pressure and increases the political cost to the Trump administration of having started a war it cannot cleanly end.
What Europe Has Riding on These Rooms
The economic consequences of the Hormuz blockade have fallen unevenly across the Atlantic. European economies, which were already more exposed to Middle Eastern energy imports than the US, have absorbed some of the sharpest price shocks. The European Central Bank has warned that a prolonged conflict will likely push major energy-dependent economies — Germany, Italy, Spain, France — into technical recession by the end of 2026.
In Italy, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto warned Corriere della Sera last week that if the strait remains closed into May, ‘not everything, but a lot’ of Italian industry could grind to a halt within weeks. Four northern Italian airports have already implemented emergency jet fuel rationing, capping short-haul aircraft uplifts at 2,000 litres per flight and prioritising medical and long-haul services. In France, diesel prices have exceeded 2.30 euros per litre and roughly 16 percent of petrol stations reported diesel shortages in early April. Gas prices across the continent have risen 56 percent since February, from 32 euros per megawatt-hour to over 50.
For European governments watching the Islamabad talks, the outcome is not an abstraction. A deal that reopens Hormuz — even temporarily — would begin unwinding energy prices within days of the first tankers clearing the strait. A collapsed negotiation would likely push those prices higher still.
What This Actually Means
The Islamabad talks represent the best diplomatic opening since the war began, but they are not a peace deal. They are a negotiation between two parties who agreed to stop shooting while disagreeing about what stopping shooting actually requires. The ceasefire is real in one sense: US and Israeli airstrikes have paused. It is fictional in another: the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most consequential energy chokepoint, is still closed six days after both sides said it would open.
The path to a durable agreement requires both sides to accept a formula that lets Iran claim strategic sovereignty while allowing commercial shipping to pass freely — a face-saving mechanism that the Iranian government could sell domestically as a toll arrangement and the US could describe as freedom of navigation restored. That kind of diplomatic creativity is possible. But it requires both delegations to be negotiating in good faith toward a shared endpoint, and Saturday’s session gave mixed signals on that point.
Energy markets, insurance underwriters, and shipping companies are watching the Islamabad hotel conference rooms more closely than any battlefield. The war’s military phase may be paused. Its economic consequences are still running at full speed.
What this means
As of Sunday morning, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
The US delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, arrived in Islamabad on Saturday.
Bottom line
Iran arrived in Islamabad with a ten-point negotiating framework that has circulated among regional powers since late March.