The war between Iran and Israel is no longer only about missiles and oil. Nineteen days in, the assassinations-and-retaliation rhythm is doing something else: it is deciding who will control Tehran and Jerusalem after the next political break. As CBS News has reported, Iran has lashed out with fresh strikes while Israel and the United States signal that the conflict is still intensifying. Behind the headlines, both capitals are using the fight to lock in successors and sideline rivals.
The conflict is a succession contest as much as a military one
On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggered a succession that put his son Mojtaba Khamenei in power. Iran’s top national security official Ali Larijani was killed in an Israeli strike on March 17. Iran has launched at least 58 waves of retaliatory strikes under Operation True Promise 4, hitting Israeli and U.S. targets with precision missiles and drones, according to reporting from multiple outlets. Two people were killed near Tel Aviv in one strike; Iranian missiles have hit central Israel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has debuted new systems such as the “Haj Qassem” missile and has vowed to expand the “scale and depth” of attacks. Each round of decapitation and counterstrike is thinning the layer of decision-makers and hardening whoever remains.
Trump and Netanyahu are using the war to cement their own political legacies
On the Israeli and American side, the war is equally tied to who holds power after the next election or transition. Axios reported that Netanyahu called Trump on February 23, 2026, from the White House Situation Room with intelligence that Khamenei and his inner circle would be meeting in Tehran that Saturday morning. The two leaders had met twice and spoken by phone 15 times in the two months before the conflict. Netanyahu had visited the White House a record six times in the prior year. Foreign Policy noted that Netanyahu had “longed to do” a strike on Iran “for 40 years” and timed the operation to a closing political window. Within Israel, 81% of the public supported the Iran strikes, and Netanyahu has framed the campaign as central to his reelection strategy and legacy after October 7. Trump, by contrast, has since said the U.S. is not pursuing regime change and that the goal is to destroy Iran’s missiles and navy and prevent nuclear weapons. Reuters reported that Israeli officials privately accept that Trump will ultimately decide when the war ends. The divergence shows two allies using the same war to lock in different political outcomes at home.
Regional and economic fallout is forcing other governments to choose sides
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, has become the leverage point. Iran’s new leadership has vowed to keep the strait under pressure and to continue attacks on U.S. bases. Brent crude has stayed above $100 per barrel, up more than 40% since the war began. The UAE briefly closed then reopened airspace. Major carriers such as Maersk have suspended transit through the strait and rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. War risk premiums for shipping have risen. As CBS News and others have documented, Iran has struck not only Israel but Gulf neighbours, and the United States has hit Iranian infrastructure including Kharg Island. Governments across the region are being pulled into a contest that is as much about who will run Iran and who will lead Israel and America as it is about territory or oil.
What This Actually Means
The public story is deterrence and retaliation. The private story is succession. In Tehran, the death of Khamenei and senior figures has installed a new Supreme Leader and weakened rivals, while the IRGC uses the war to justify its grip on security policy. In Jerusalem and Washington, the war rewards Netanyahu’s narrative of decisive action and gives Trump a “wartime president” frame. Neither side has a clear political theory of victory that ends the cycle; both are betting that the other will crack first. The evidence so far is that the cycle is entrenching the actors who benefit from it and punishing those who do not. Until one side’s domestic politics forces a real off-ramp, the assassinations-and-retaliation rhythm will keep shaping who holds power in Tehran and Jerusalem.
Who is in charge in Tehran and Jerusalem now?
In Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father as Supreme Leader after the February 28 strike. The transition was immediate; there was no drawn-out succession fight. The IRGC has since driven military policy and vowed to expand retaliatory attacks. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister and has tied his political survival to the Iran campaign. In the United States, Donald Trump is in his second term and has stated that the U.S. is not ready to make a deal to end the war on Iran’s current terms. The three leaders are the main decision-makers. The war has strengthened the hand of those who favoured escalation and weakened internal critics who might have argued for restraint.
What is Operation True Promise 4?
Operation True Promise 4 is Iran’s name for its sustained retaliatory campaign against Israeli and U.S. targets since the war began. By March 17, 2026, Iran had launched at least 58 waves of strikes, using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Targets have included central Israel (Tel Aviv, Beit Shemesh, Lod, Ramla), southern Israel (Eilat), Israeli air bases, and U.S. bases in the Gulf (Al Udeid, Ali Al Salem, Erbil, and others). The IRGC has introduced new systems during the campaign, including the “Haj Qassem” missile. The operation is the successor to earlier Iranian responses and reflects a decision to keep pressure on rather than accept a one-time punishment. CBS News and other outlets have tracked the waves as they have expanded in geography and frequency.