Israel’s leaders now face a choice between symbolic retaliation that satisfies domestic hawks and moves that could finally trigger the direct war both sides claim to avoid. According to AP News, Iran has launched new attacks at Israel and Gulf countries as it keeps up pressure across the Middle East. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that Israel achieved all objectives of Operation Rising Lion and agreed to a ceasefire with President Trump on March 9, 2026. But the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has vowed to expand the scale and depth of retaliatory attacks. Israel is caught between the need to show strength and the risk of crossing a line that neither side wants to cross.
Israel must satisfy hawks without triggering the war everyone fears
As Foreign Policy reported in early March 2026, senior Israeli officials are quietly discussing exit strategies to avoid an endless conflict. One Israeli official stated: I’m not sure it’s in our interest to fight until the regime is toppled. Nobody wants a never-ending story. The concerns driving these discussions include rising oil and gas prices threatening a global economic crisis, and the rapid depletion of advanced missile interceptors. Israel and the US are risking an unsustainable war of attrition. Israel prepared for a weeks-long Iran campaign and is unlikely to deploy ground forces, according to Reuters.
Netanyahu has shifted from what his biographer Anshel Pfeffer called the most risk-averse of Israeli leaders to direct military engagement. As The Atlantic reported, Netanyahu’s greatest gamble is now open war with Iran. Foreign Affairs analyst Shira Efron warns of false promises of total victory. While Israel celebrates military successes in degrading Iranian capabilities, it remains uncertain how the Israeli government will manage an unpredictable escalatory spiral. Israel declared victory after the 12-day war in June 2025, only to face renewed conflict months later.
Trump continues demanding unconditional surrender, while Israeli and US officials acknowledge the bombing campaign is nearing its military objectives but question whether regime change justifies the mounting costs. As the New York Times reported, Iran is pursuing asymmetric endurance: expand the battlefield, disrupt oil flows, exhaust enemy air defences, and wear down Trump’s political will. For Iran, mere survival constitutes victory. Israel must respond forcefully to any ceasefire violation, as Netanyahu stated, but each response risks the spiral both sides claim to want to avoid.
The trap tightens with every exchange
According to AP News, a top Iranian security official, Ali Larijani, threatened US President Donald Trump in an online message on X on Tuesday March 10, 2026. The IRGC stated it would expand retaliatory attacks against US and Israeli targets, launching new-generation missiles at sites in Israeli-occupied territories, Beersheba, Tel Aviv, and the Azraq Air Base. Iran struck the Haifa oil refinery in the June 2025 conflict, becoming the only state actor to directly strike Israel. The conflict has moved from decades of shadow war into open warfare.
Israel’s Arrow 3 interceptor stocks reportedly ran critically low during the previous 2025 conflict. As Foreign Policy reported, the US and Israel face potential exhaustion of advanced air defence interceptors through prolonged attrition warfare, not battlefield defeat. Vali Nasr, former State Department advisor, suggests the Trump administration may have miscalculated, as Iran and Israel have a higher tolerance for pain than anticipated. RAND analyst Raphael Cohen characterises any détente as merely a tactical pause unlikely to last, predicting the next round of the Iran-Israel war will be even bigger than before.
Netanyahu’s war alliance with Trump faces a test as the Iran crisis widens. According to Reuters, the two countries’ objectives are diverging: Netanyahu has called for Iranian regime change, while Trump’s stated goal focuses on destroying Iran’s missiles and navy and preventing nuclear weapons development. Gulf allies complained they received no advance notice of the February 28 strikes and that US defence prioritised Israel and American troops over regional partners. Former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal stated: This is Netanyahu’s war.
What This Actually Means
Israel is trapped. Domestic politics demand a tough response to every Iranian provocation. The security establishment knows that each escalation risks the direct, sustained war that would drain interceptor stocks, strain the economy, and test the limits of US support. Netanyahu has declared victory and agreed a ceasefire, but Iran has not surrendered. The IRGC promises more strikes. If Israel retaliates too hard, it could trigger the war both sides claim to avoid. If it holds back, it may satisfy neither Washington nor its own hawks. The trap is that the only way out is to stop escalating, but neither side can afford to be the first to blink.
Background
What is Israel? Israel, officially the State of Israel, is a country in the Southern Levant region of West Asia. It is bordered by Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. Jerusalem is the government seat and proclaimed capital; Tel Aviv is the largest urban area and economic centre. Israel was established in 1948. Iran was among the first countries to recognize Israel after 1948; relations became hostile after the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
Who is Benjamin Netanyahu? Benjamin Netanyahu is the Prime Minister of Israel. He has led multiple Israeli governments and has pursued a hardline stance toward Iran. In March 2026 he announced that Israel achieved all objectives of Operation Rising Lion and agreed to a ceasefire with the US.
Sources
AP News, Foreign Policy, The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, Reuters